Syndromic surveillance of influenza-like illness in Scotland during the influenza A H1N1v pandemic and beyond

Syndromic surveillance refers to the rapid monitoring of syndromic data to highlight and follow outbreaks of infectious diseases, increasing situational awareness. Such systems are based upon statistical models to described routinely collected health data. We describe a working exception reporting system (ERS) currently used in Scotland to monitor calls received to the NHS telephone helpline, NHS24. We demonstrate the utility of the system to describe the time series data from NHS24 both at an aggregated Scotland level and at the individual health board level for two case studies, firstly during the initial phase of the 2009 Influenza A H1N1v and secondly for the emergence of seasonal influenza in each winter season from 2006/07 and 2010/11. In particular, we focus on a localised cluster of infection in the Highland health board and the ability of the system to highlight this outbreak. Caveats of the system, including the effect of media reporting of the pandemic on the results and the associated statistical issues, will be discussed. We discuss the adaptability and timeliness of the system and how this continues to form part of a suite of surveillance used to give early warnings to public health decision makers

Improving prescribing through big data approaches - ten years of the Scottish prescribing information system

Medicines are a major component of modern healthcare delivery, both in resource consumption and as drivers of innovation. The ever increasing application of digitalisation within day-to-day living and as part of our healthcare systems – with the resultant data generation – presents the opportunity to better define the populations exposed to medicines, and their benefits and harm in real world settings. This article outlines the development of the Scottish National Prescribing Information System (PIS) and describes how this capability is being used to support the safe and effective use of medicines, both nationally and internationally. Since 2009, PIS has included e-prescribed/e-dispensed and reimbursed medicines data, now totalling 976 million prescriptions, with codified structured data on dose instructions. A literature review, covering the period from January 2009 to March 2019, identified 40 full publications using PIS, the first occurring in 2014. The majority involved pharmacoepidemiology/drug use studies (50%) in cancer and cardiovascular disease. Measuring the value and impact of PIS was extended beyond publication quantification by illustrating the translation of PIS outputs into the learning health system at scale. The developing Scottish capabilities add breadth and depth to the wider evolving international environment, and offer the potential to contribute collegiately to the global effort on medicine safety and effectiveness, including support for the WHO Global Patient Safety Challenge: “Medication Without Harm”

Examination of the risk of reinfection with hepatitis C among injecting drug users who have been tested in Glasgow

Unsafe injecting practices put injecting drug users (IDUs) at repeat exposure to infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV). It has not yet been determined if spontaneously clearing one's primary infection influences the risk of reinfection; our aim was to estimate the relative risk of reinfection in IDUs who have cleared the virus. We conducted a retrospective study using a large database of HCV test results covering Greater Glasgow Health Board during 1993–2007 to calculate rates of infection and reinfection in current/former IDUs. The relative risk of (re)infection in previously infected compared with never-infected IDUs was estimated using Poisson regression, adjusting for age at study entry, sex, and calendar period of test. Although the rate of reinfection in IDUs who were HCV antibody-positive, RNA-negative at baseline was lower (7/100 person-years, 95% CI: 5–9) than the rate of acute infection in IDUs who were HCV antibody-negative at baseline (10/100 person-years, 95% CI: 9–12), the risk of reinfection was not significantly different than the risk of initial infection (adjusted rate ratio = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.57–1.08). We found only weak evidence for a reduced risk of HCV reinfection in IDUs who had cleared their previous infection. Further research among those who have cleared infection through antiviral therapy is needed to help inform decisions regarding treatment of IDUs

Early estimation of pandemic influenza Antiviral and Vaccine Effectiveness (EAVE):use of a unique community and laboratory national data-linked cohort study

After the introduction of any new pandemic influenza, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of a new vaccination will be required to ensure that it is targeted to those at increased risk of serious illness or death from influenza.  We aimed to build a pandemic influenza reporting platform that will determine, once a new pandemic is under way: the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine or any protective effect conferred by antiviral drugs once available; the clinical attack rate of pandemic influenza; and the existence of protection provided by previous exposure to, and vaccination from, A/H1N1 pandemic or seasonal influenza/identification of susceptible groups.  An observational cohort and test-negative study design will be used (post pandemic).  A national linkage of patient-level general practice data from 41 Practice Team Information general practices, hospitalisation and death certification, virological swab and serology-linked data.  We will study a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population comprising 300,000 patients. Confirmation of influenza using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and, in a subset of the population, serology.  Future available pandemic influenza vaccination and antivirals will be evaluated.  To build a reporting platform tailored towards the evaluation of pandemic influenza vaccination. This system will rapidly measure vaccine effectiveness (VE), adjusting for confounders, estimated by determining laboratory-confirmed influenza; influenza-related morbidity and mortality, including general practice influenza-like illnesses (ILIs); and hospitalisation and death from influenza and pneumonia. Once a validated haemagglutination inhibition assay has been developed (and prior to the introduction of any vaccination), cross-reactivity with previous exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H1N1 vaccination, other pandemic influenza or other seasonal influenza vaccination or exposure will be measured.  A new sentinel system, capable of rapidly determining the estimated incidence of pandemic influenza, and pandemic influenza vaccine and antiviral uptake and effectiveness in preventing influenza and influenza-related clinical outcomes, has been created. We have all of the required regulatory approvals to allow rapid activation of the sentinel systems in the event of a pandemic. Of the 41 practices expressing an interest in participating, 40 have completed all of the necessary paperwork to take part in the reporting platform. The data extraction tool has been installed in these practices. Data extraction and deterministic linkage systems have been tested. Four biochemistry laboratories have been recruited, and systems for serology collection and linkage of samples to general practice data have been put in place. Future work: The reporting platform has been set up and is ready to be activated in the event of any pandemic of influenza. Building on this infrastructure, there is now the opportunity to extend the network of general practices to allow important subgroup analyses of VE (e.g. for patients with comorbidities, at risk of serious ILI) and to link to other data sources, in particular to test for maternal outcomes in pregnant patients

SurgiCal Obesity Treatment Study (SCOTS): protocol for a national prospective cohort study of patients undergoing bariatric surgery in Scotland.

Introduction The efficacy of bariatric surgery for large-scale, long-term weight loss is well established. However, many questions remain over the continual benefits and cost-effectiveness of that weight loss for overall health, particularly when accounting for potential complications and adverse events of surgery. Health research institutes in the UK and the USA have called for high-quality longitudinal cohort studies of patients undergoing bariatric surgery, assessing outcomes such as surgical complications, mortality, diabetes remission, microvascular complications, cardiovascular events, mental health, cost and healthcare use. Methods and analysis SurgiCal Obesity Treatment Study (SCOTS) is a national, prospective, observational, cohort study of patients undergoing primary bariatric surgical procedures in Scotland. This study aims to recruit 2000 patients and conduct a follow-up for 10 years postbariatric surgery using multiple data collection methods: surgeon-recorded data, electronic health record linkage, and patient-reported outcome measures. Outcomes measured will include: mortality, weight change, diabetes, surgical, cardiovascular, cancer, behavioural, reproductive/urological and nutritional variables. Healthcare utilisation and economic productivity will be collected to inform cost-effectiveness analysis. Ethics and dissemination The study has received a favourable ethical opinion from the West of Scotland Research Ethics committee. All publications arising from this cohort study will be published in open-access peer-reviewed journals. All SCOTS investigators (all members of the research team at every recruiting site) will have the ability to propose research suggestions and potential publications using SCOTS data; a publications committee will approve all requests for use of SCOTS data and propose writing committees and timelines. Lay-person summaries of all research findings will be published simultaneously on the SCOTS website (http://www.scotsurgeystudy.org.uk)

A pragmatic harm reduction approach to manage a large outbreak of wound botulism in people who inject drugs, Scotland 2015

Abstract Background People who inject drugs (PWID) are at an increased risk of wound botulism, a potentially fatal acute paralytic illness. During the first 6 months of 2015, a large outbreak of wound botulism was confirmed among PWID in Scotland, which resulted in the largest outbreak in Europe to date. Methods A multidisciplinary Incident Management Team (IMT) was convened to conduct an outbreak investigation, which consisted of enhanced surveillance of cases in order to characterise risk factors and identify potential sources of infection. Results Between the 24th of December 2014 and the 30th of May 2015, a total of 40 cases were reported across six regions in Scotland. The majority of the cases were male, over 30 and residents in Glasgow. All epidemiological evidence suggested a contaminated batch of heroin or cutting agent as the source of the outbreak. There are significant challenges associated with managing an outbreak among PWID, given their vulnerability and complex addiction needs. Thus, a pragmatic harm reduction approach was adopted which focused on reducing the risk of infection for those who continued to inject and limited consequences for those who got infected. Conclusions The management of this outbreak highlighted the importance and need for pragmatic harm reduction interventions which support the addiction needs of PWID during an outbreak of spore-forming bacteria. Given the scale of this outbreak, the experimental learning gained during this and similar outbreaks involving spore-forming bacteria in the UK was collated into national guidance to improve the management and investigation of future outbreaks among PWID

Implementation of antibiotic stewardship in different settings - results of an international survey.

Background: Antibiotic stewardship interventions are being implemented across different healthcare settings. We report the findings of a global survey of healthcare professionals on the implementation of antibiotic stewardship programmes. Methods: Learners of a Massive Online Open Course (MOOC) on antibiotic stewardship were invited to complete an online survey on the core available organisational resources for stewardship. The categorical variables were analysed using chi-squared test, and Likert questions were analysed using an ordinal regression model. The p-values were considered as two-tailed. Significance was set at p-value of < 0.05. Results: The response rate was 55% (505/920), from 53 countries. The responders were 36% (182) doctors, 26% (130) pharmacists, 18% (89) nurses and 20% (104) other (researchers, students and members of the public). Post-graduate training in infection management and stewardship was reported by 56% of doctors compared with 43% (OR 0.59, 95%CI 0.35-1.00) nurses and 35% (OR 0.39, 95%CI 0.24-0.62) of pharmacists. Hospitals were significantly (83% in teaching hospitals, 79% in regional hospitals, p = < 0.01) more likely to have antibiotic policies, when compared to primary care. A surveillance mechanism for antibiotic consumption was reported in 58% (104/178) of teaching hospitals and 62% (98/159) of regional hospitals. Antimicrobial resistance, patient needs, policy, peer influence and specialty level culture and practices were deemed important determinants for decision-making. Conclusion: Postgraduate training and support in antibiotic prescribing remains low amongst nurses and pharmacists. Whilst antibiotic policies and committees are established in most institutions, surveillance of antibiotic use is not. The impact of specialty level culture, and peer influence appears to be important factors of antibiotic prescribing